Articles

The outlook for the thermal insulation materials in Poland market is bright despite a brief, albeit severe, downturn. After double-digit decreases, in real terms, in 2022 and 2023, the thermal insulation materials market steadily recovers, driven mainly by an upturn in residential construction in 2024. The building repair and improvement segment is poised to grow strongly in the long term.

Growth potential of the Polish construction market will remain significant through 2029 on the back of the continuation of ambitious transport infrastructure construction projects, the reconstruction of the housing market in the largest urban agglomerations, the development of the offshore wind farm sector, preparations for the construction of the first nuclear blocks, the implementation of the EU cohesion policy for the years 2021-2027, as well as a revival in military construction and the Eastern Shield program. A vast majority of projects underway or planned to be implemented are located in the six most developed regions, which jointly account for two-thirds of the construction market.

18 construction groups listed on the WSE delivered sluggish aggregate revenue performance in the last four quarters. However, their aggregate net profit improved to a little over PLN 1bn in the period under review. Profit margins reported by the listed construction companies are still lower compared to figures delivered by home developers. Margins posted by suppliers of building materials and construction equipment dropped substantially over the past year.

Modular construction in Poland is dynamically developing, bringing solutions that gradually change the face of architecture and construction. Thanks to the use of prefabricated modules, buildings can be erected faster, cheaper, and with less impact on the environment.

Despite a brief downturn inherent to the post-investment boom phase, the long-term outlook for the Polish roofing market remains highly promising. Key factors supporting the recovery of the roofing market’s potential in the coming years will include strong long-term macroeconomic fundamentals of Poland’s economy, the structural shortage of flats in Poland when compared to the EU average, an upsurge in investment activity in the residential construction sector, a substantial volume of logistics construction projects, and the fact that building repairs and upgrades account for a substantial portion of the market.

Top 50 manufacturers of precast concrete products generated a record revenue of PLN 6.7bn in 2022, with 64% of the figure contributed by precast concrete products, according to the report "Sector of heavy precast concrete products in Poland 2024-2029" released by research firm Spectis. Accordingly, the value of the heavy precast concrete products sector totalled a record PLN 4.3bn in 2022.

The "Construction market in Poland 2024-2031" report, the latest release of Spectis, indicates that construction companies improved their margins a tad in 2023, recording an all-time high in terms of net profit. As it was the case in both 2021 and 2022, the profits were driven by renegotiation of price contracts, in particular in the civil engineering construction segment.

As the situation in the housing market steadily improves, home developers step up their efforts in preparation for some big projects. The recent months have seen a series of noteworthy agreements on cooperation in joint residential construction projects.

On 12 March 2024, the European Parliament finally voted in favour of the updated Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, which will have a major impact on buildings in the European Union in the coming decades. The amended EPBD stipulates that all new buildings should be zero-emission as of 2030 (new buildings occupied or owned by public authorities should be zero-emission as of 2028). The Directive also requires modernisation of existing buildings.

Aggregate capital expenditure on railway infrastructure that is planned for 2024-2030 as part of several public investment programmes is nearly PLN 250bn. This is twice as much as the railway construction sector’s actual capacity. In view of such a vast disparity, we can expect that the official plans will need to be revised and verified, resulting in discontinuing some of the projects planned or extending their duration. In fact, realigning the ambitious investment plans to the actual construction capacity of the relevant entities will likely be the outcome of these two approaches.

Revenue generated by the top 40 construction companies operating in Poland grew in double digits in 2023, in nominal terms, for the third straight year, and it was mostly the effect of the overall substantial growth of construction costs. For these companies to continue to thrive, it is necessary to disburse the EU funding for Poland promptly, including all the funds available under the National Recovery Scheme and the cohesion policy budget for 2021-2027.

The continuing relatively good economic situation in the construction industry and a significant increase in the prices of construction materials and labour have resulted in the total revenues of entities ranked in the database of the 3,000 largest construction companies in Poland increasing by nearly 50% to PLN 290bn in just two years.

The Polish market of modular buildings is dominated by two technologies – concrete-based construction and wood-based construction. There is also a segment focused around steel-structure buildings growing beside the two leading technologies, but it is significantly smaller. In terms of the base materials, there is also a lightweight expanded clay aggregate wall technology. The main differences between the three major technologies consist in how the components are delivered to the construction site and the method of assembly.

As the residential construction market faced a fast-changing environment in 2023, home developers were eager to respond quickly. However, an analysis of the companies’ strategies performed by Spectis for the needs of the report "Residential property developers in Poland 2024-2029" indicates that they remained cautious in their business decisions despite the upturn and a great scope of opportunities,

As prefabrication technologies are increasingly applied in building construction, the value of the modular construction sector in Poland has increased nearly by half over the past two years. The process has been helped by a great selection of available materials as well as growing prices of materials and labour costs. Exports make a substantial contribution to the sector’s growth as sales to foreign markets represent over one-third of the manufacturers’ revenue. In spite of the brief slowdown, the outlook for modular construction through 2029 remains highly promising.

The outbreak of the war in Ukraine and a looming energy crisis caused by the conflict made the Polish government realise that Poland should be vitally interested in driving energy transition and put words into action. There has been a significant rise in both the number and the value of projects planned since the beginning of 2022. As a result, the current value of the top 210 power projects, both underway and planned, already exceeds PLN 530bn. However, noteworthy is the fact that top 80 power and industrial construction companies that operate in Poland have a combined annual production capacity of PLN 30bn. Accordingly, it follows that the energy transition of the Polish economy can be a project spanning over two decades or even longer.

Growing popularity of wood construction combined with rising prices of wood have doubled the value of the wood and timber structures market in Poland in just five years. The change has been boosted by exports, which accounted for nearly 60% of revenue generated by Polish manufacturers in recent years. The wood construction sector has promising prospects until 2028 although a short-lasting downturn is likely.

Revenue generated by 54 manufacturers of roofing products amounted to PLN 12.9bn in 2021, with 42% of the figure contributed by roof coverings, according to the findings presented in the report "Roofs and roof coverings in Poland 2023-2028" released by research company Spectis. Factoring in estimated revenue for all companies operating in the sector and taking into consideration other niche types of roof coverings, the value of the roofing products market was PLN 6.1bn, reporting impressive growth of over 30%.

Despite numerous acquisitions completed in recent years, the sector of precast concrete products remains highly fragmented, and it still offers a considerable potential for continued consolidation. New investors emerge on the market practically every year, but they rarely invest in ground-up construction of production plants. They tend to rely on assets of acquired companies or their business partners.

Top 50 manufacturers of precast concrete products generated a record revenue of PLN 5.5bn in 2021, with 65% of the figure added by precast concrete products, according to our latest report "Sector of heavy precast concrete products in Poland 2023-2028". Accordingly, the value of the heavy precast concrete products sector totalled a record PLN 3.5bn by 2021.

Growth potential of the Polish construction market will remain significant through 2028 on the back of the continuation of ambitious road and railway construction projects, the energy transition of Polish economy, the development of e-commerce, growing trends of nearshoring and friendshoring, and an upturn in the military construction segment. A vast majority of projects underway or planned to be implemented are located in the six most developed regions, which jointly account for two-thirds of the construction market.

"The market of steel structures in Poland 2023-2028" report released by Spectis finds that ten largest producers of steel structures operating in Poland represented nearly 35% of output produced by top 100 steel structure manufacturers in 2021, compared to 30% in the preceding year. This represents an unprecedented increase in just one year. The change has largely been driven by a steep rise in product prices, which was better handled by the major manufacturers.

The value of the Polish steel structures market has grown by over a half over the last two years, driven by increased demand and sharp price increases. We estimate that the value of steel structures produced by the top 100 manufacturers in Poland exceeded PLN 7bn in 2022. Steel structures are designed mainly for the industrial and warehouse construction industry and the broadly defined power and industrial sector.

Miekinia is to be home to Poland’s largest foreign investment project ever. Intel announced in mid-June that the town was selected as the site for a semiconductor assembly and test plant.

19 construction groups listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange reported nominal revenue growth of 16% y-o-y over the past four quarters. However, the positive impact of previous one-off events came to an end and caused the net profit of the said group of companies to fall to just PLN 170m. Profit margins reported by the listed construction companies are still worse that the figures delivered by developers and suppliers of building materials and construction equipment.

The government-led First Home scheme is scheduled to begin at the beginning of July. Many banks are taking steps to conduct a broad review of the scheme and prepare for its operation, while home developers have been seeing a lot of activity from prospective scheme participants at their sales offices.

The “Construction market in Poland 2023-2030” report, the latest release of Spectis, indicates that construction companies managed to retain their margins in 2022 despite rising costs, recording an all-time high in terms of net profit. It was partly due to a partnership approach pursued by the contracting parties, allowing for price negotiation of selected contracts.

The February data on economic activity show a continued slowdown of the economy at the beginning of 2023. The value of industrial output sold dropped by 1.2% y-o-y, while retail sales shrank by a whopping 5%. As in January, the rate of construction output growth again came as a positive surprise.

19 construction groups listed on the WSE reported nominal revenue growth of 25% y-o-y over the past four quarters, which was largely driven by a continued hike in the prices of labour and building materials. However, the positive impact of previous one-off events came to an end and caused the net profit of the said group of companies to fall to just under PLN 1bn. Despite reporting an aggregate net profit, profit margins reported by the listed construction companies are still worse that the figures delivered by developers and suppliers of building materials and construction equipment.

Despite hard market conditions, the 2022 outlook for the construction sector remains moderately favourable on the back of the results generated in the first half of the year, according to findings presented in the autumn edition of our report "Construction market in Poland 2022-2029". We expect that the real growth of the market’s value will stand at 1% for all construction companies, and 2% for the major construction enterprises with more than nine members of staff. Regarding 2023, the outlook for the construction industry is not that bright, though.

The ongoing war in Ukraine is forcing the energy transition of the Polish economy to be accelerated. There has been an increase in both the number and the value of projects in the pipeline observed in the last few months. The current value of the largest 180 projects, both underway and planned, has already exceeded PLN 300bn. However, it should be noted that the top 80 power and industrial construction companies operating in Poland have a combined production capacity of PLN 20bn per year. So, the limited production capacity of the construction industry will be a bottleneck for these projects that will take at least 20 years to work itself out.

The growth potential of the Polish construction market will remain significant through 2027 (and in the long term) on the back of the necessity to accelerate energy transformation of Polish economy, the continuation of ambitious transport infrastructure projects, the influx of Ukrainian refugees, and the expected trend among companies that previously operated east off the Polish border to move to Poland. A vast majority of projects underway or planned to implemented are located in the six most economically advanced regions, which jointly account for two-thirds of the construction market’s value.

The estimated value of 270 major railway projects, both ongoing and planned, is PLN 125bn, including PLN 37bn (30% of the total amount) represented by ongoing projects, and PLN 88bn being the value of projects in the tender, planning or initial concept stages, according to the findings presented in our report entitled "Railway construction in Poland 2022-2027". The sizeable gap between the value of ongoing projects and projects in the planning stage reveals a long-term potential for the growth of this branch of the construction industry.

The value of the concrete products market grew by around 14% in nominal terms in 2021, topping the PLN 10.6bn-mark on the back above-average increases in production costs, according to the "Sector of concrete products in Poland 2022-2027" report. The outlook for 2022 is again for a double-digit growth rate in terms of the market’s value.

Our latest report "Construction market in Poland 2022-2029", indicates that following a strong start to the year, the outlook for the construction sector over the coming months of 2022 is now less bright. The expected slowdown can be indirectly caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine, which only aggravates the problems the market has been facing previously, such as soaring prices of raw materials, building materials, and energy sources or the shortage of labour.

Revenue generated by 54 manufacturers of roofing products covered in our report "Roofs and roof coverings in Poland 2022-2027", exceeded PLN 9bn in 2020, and over 40% of that figure was contributed by roof coverings. Based on preliminary data, we estimate that the value of the market of roof coverings grew by 9% in 2021. We expect slightly slower growth of the market in 2022.

Total revenue reported by 40 largest construction companies operating in Poland levelled off at PLN 47bn-48bn in 2018-2020. Given the fact that construction costs had increased in the recent years, the companies’ work volume actually shrank. 2021 is poised to see a slight nominal hike in revenue posted by the largest construction enterprises. For these companies to continue to thrive, it is necessary that EU funding for Poland (National Recovery Scheme) and a cohesion policy budget for 2021-2027 are promptly approved.

At the end of 2021 we updated our database of the largest construction companies in Poland. Available as an Excel file, the database of construction companies is a useful tool supporting the analysis of the competitive environment in the construction industry. It also comes in handy when you look for a contracting company or a subcontractor. The database is particularly useful when choosing or screening companies by revenue, profitability, or location.

19 construction groups listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange reported nominal revenue growth of 10% y-o-y over the past four quarters, which was driven by the continued hike in prices of labour and building materials. Also, the aggregate net profit posted by companies in this group improved substantially as it grew by PLN 1.3bn over the year, though it was mostly due to one-off market developments. Notwithstanding that, the profit margin figures reported by the listed construction companies are still worse that results delivered by developers and suppliers of building materials and construction equipment.

The growth potential of the Polish construction market will remain significant through 2026 on the back of the continuation of ambitious road and railway infrastructure projects, the required power transformation of the Polish economy and the steadily robust performance of the residential construction sector. A vast majority of projects underway or planned to implemented are located in the six most economically advanced regions, which jointly account for two-thirds of the construction market’s value.

The estimated value of over 170 major projects, both ongoing and planned, is €56bn, including €6.6bn (12% of the total amount) represented by ongoing projects, and nearly €50bn being the value of projects in the tender, planning or initial concept stages, according to the findings presented in our report entitled "Power and Industrial Construction in Poland 2021-2026". The sizeable gap between the value of ongoing projects and projects in the planning stage reveals a huge potential for the growth of this branch of the construction industry.

Aggregate revenue reported by nearly 20 construction groups whose stock is listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange grew by a nominal 4.3% in 2020, which is a scant rise in real terms, given continued increases in the prices of building materials and labour costs. However, the aggregate net profit posted by these companies improved clearly as it grew by almost PLN 0.5bn over the year. Notwithstanding that, net financial performance of the listed construction companies and profit margin figures they report still pale in comparison to results delivered by property developers and suppliers of building materials and construction equipment.

The estimated value of over 200 major railway projects, both ongoing and planned, is almost PLN 120bn, including PLN 35bn (30% of the total amount) represented by ongoing projects, and over PLN 80bn being the value of projects in the tender, planning or initial concept stages, according to the findings presented in our report entitled “Railway construction in Poland 2021-2026”. The vast gap between the value of ongoing projects and projects in the planning stage reveals substantial potential for the growth of this branch of the construction industry.

Manufacturers of facade products were successful in generating a little over PLN 3.6bn (€800m) in revenue in 2020 in spite of slower activity in the building construction sector, especially in the non-residential segment, according to the findings presented in our latest report entitled "Facades and facade materials in Poland 2021-2026".

At the beginning of 2021 we expanded our database of the largest construction companies in Poland by adding a thousand new firms. Available as an Excel file, the database of construction companies is a useful tool supporting the analysis of the competitive environment in the contracting sector. It also comes in handy when you look for a contracting company or a subcontractor. The database is particularly useful when choosing or screening companies by revenue, profitability, or location. The database presents financial data relating to sales revenue and net profit/loss going as far back as 2010.

Manufacturers of roofing products were successful in generating a little over PLN 4bn (€900m) in revenue in 2020 in spite of slower activity in the building construction sector, according to the findings presented in the report released by Spectis entitled "Roofs and roof coverings in Poland 2020-2025".

December turned out to be a good month for construction companies and producers of building materials, according to our latest monthly report “Construction market in Poland – February 2021”. However, the outlook for the construction industry in 2021 remains moderately bleak, mostly because of a high comparison base of Q1 2020. That the second half of the year could see an upturn is yet suggested by higher order books reported by the top 20 construction companies.

The Polish economy is already past the low point of the short-term economic activity downturn. However, the construction industry is not at this point yet as it responds to economic shocks after a certain time period. This is why the first half of 2021 will be marked by challenges. The market pins its hopes on the new EU financial envelope, but a tangible effect on the investment volume will not become apparent before H2 2021.

Manufacturers of concrete products in Poland will be able to generate a little over PLN 9bn in revenue in 2019 in spite of slower construction activity, according to the findings presented in our latest report "Sector of concrete products in Poland 2020-2025".

There are only four construction projects with a unit value in excess of PLN 3bn (€670m), excl. VAT, currently underway in Poland. The combined value of these projects, commonly referred to as mega-projects, is almost PLN 17bn (€3.8bn), excl. VAT. This is not a lot, given the fact that projects worth a total of nearly PLN 300bn (€67bn) are in the pipeline.

Despite a short-lasting downturn in economic activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Polish construction industry will continue to exhibit a significant potential for growth right up to 2025. Notably, the outlook for the civil engineering sector has improved compared with the previous projections. A vast majority of projects underway or planned to implemented are located in the six most economically advanced regions, which account for almost 65% of the construction market’s total value.

March was the twelfth consecutive month to see decreases in confidence in the construction sector. The seasonally-adjusted confidence index dipped into negative territory, and it plunged to a three-year low. Since the March survey does not reflect a completely new economic reality, it is expected that construction confidence will fall dramatically in April.

Business confidence among Polish construction companies tumbled early this year, with the heaviest burden, as perceived by the enterprises, coming from labour costs and tax levies. Decline in confidence is chiefly due to such factors as an over 15% increase in the minimum wage and a 10% hike in social insurance contributions faced by sole traders operating in the construction industry. On top of that, large construction businesses are required to conduct Employee Capital Schemes (PPK) or the alternative solution of Employee Pensions Schemes (PPE).

The top 40 construction companies operating in Poland posted a record aggregate revenue in 2018, breaking the previous revenue high set in 2011. Besides an improved volume of work, the revenue hike was also largely driven by rising prices of building materials and labour.

The aggregate net profit of the 30 largest commercial property developers in Poland hit an all-time high of PLN 985m (€230m) in 2018, which translated into a net profit margin of 25%. The latest data from the investment transaction market and property developers’ interim financial statements indicate that 2019 can be as good a year as 2018 was for the industry in terms of profitability.

The total value of 230 office, retail, warehouse and hotel projects, both ongoing and planned, which are conducted by top 30 property developers is estimated at nearly €10bn, according to our latest report "Property developers in Poland 2019-2023".

A record number of 200,000 flats and houses were completed in a 12-month period – the highest annual figure recorded since 1989 when Poland’s transition to democracy began – on the back of several years’ upturn in residential construction.

Total revenue reported by more than 20 construction groups listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange grew by 7.4%, in nominal terms, in Q3 2018-Q2 2019 to almost PLN 25bn (€5.8bn). However, growing revenue figures still do not translate into improved profitability of the construction industry as a whole, which has been in the negative territory for nearly two years. The upturn in the construction sector of the past few years has benefited mostly property developers and, though to a much lesser extent, producers and suppliers of building materials and construction equipment.

The value of output generated by the Polish construction industry has reached an all-time high level on the back of several years’ investment upturn, and it is expected to come close to PLN 250bn (€59bn) in 2020. In nominal terms, the market’s value is impressive, but it is less so when one looks at the volumes of construction work being performed and building materials used. A noteworthy fact is that the growth in the market’s value is boosted by rising prices of building materials and higher labour costs.

Boosted mainly by large-scale road, railway and tunnel construction projects, the backlog of orders secured by the PORR Group in Poland has grown tremendously since the acquisition of Bilfinger Infrastructure in 2015, and its value topped PLN 6.6bn (€1.55bn) as at the end of Q2 2019. Consequently, the gap between PORR and Strabag, in terms of the current value of orders on hand, has been narrowed considerably to just a single medium-sized contract.

The latest report from Spectis, "Construction market in Poland 2019-2025 – analysis of the 20 largest cities", shows significant differences among the individual cities in terms of the present stage of the business cycle and the potential through to 2025. These observations refer to both building construction and municipal infrastructure construction segments.

According to Spectis calculations, in March 2019, cement sales on the domestic market for the first time in history exceeded the level of 20 million tonnes per year.

Despite the fact that the Polish construction market is projected to grow at a slower pace in the coming years, investment potential remains considerable for most of the regions. The total value of the 960 largest investment projects underway or planned in Poland is estimated at a staggering PLN 420bn (€100bn), i.e. nearly twice as much as the annual value of the construction market as a whole, according to the findings of our latest report "Construction market in Poland 2019-2025 – an analysis of 16 regions".

Aggregate revenue reported by more than 20 construction groups whose stock is listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange grew by a nominal 9.8% in 2018, which is a meagre rise in real terms, given soaring prices of building materials and labour. Net financial performance of the listed construction companies also improved marginally, but the figure still pales in comparison to earnings achieved by property developers and suppliers of building materials and construction equipment.

Construction companies successfully confronted looming insolvency issues in 2018. However, this does not mean that the risks have been entirely mitigated. Loss-making contracts whose prices were set at the time of increased competition will still be pursued and billed in 2019 and 2020. Nevertheless, there will be fewer of them active, and the backlogs will start to comprise mostly contracts valued conservatively.

Low interest rates combined with an investment upturn and labour shortage result in a significant upward pressure on building material prices and labour costs. Given the monetary authorities’ lenient stance and the continued growth in the construction industry, price pressures in the construction market are expected to persist throughout 2019.

The Polish construction industry enjoyed a really strong year in 2018 as most of the key performance indicators were climbing the charts of growth throughout the year, but the start to 2019 saw a substantial downturn across practically all market segments. This, however, was due to a high comparison base registered last year.

Construction and assembly output generated by Polish construction companies in foreign markets has hit an all-time high of €1.55bn, but this is still below the potential of domestic contractors. Importantly, a considerable change to the structure of companies engaged in foreign orders took place in recent years – the centre of gravity has shifted from the biggest construction groups to smaller companies with a specialised focus.

Profitability of 22 construction groups listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange continued in the negative territory throughout Q3 2018. Moreover, the third quarter of the year was the second consecutive quarter that profitability reported by property developers was on the decline, though it should be noted that their earnings were still fairly decent and at a sound level when compared to contractors. On the other hand, financial results delivered by manufacturers and suppliers of building materials and construction equipment were solid.

Despite unsuccessful bids to secure contracts for the construction of the Ostroleka Power Plant and the tunnel section of the S3 expressway, members of the PowerChina Group still stand a good chance of winning three orders totalling more than PLN 3bn, incl. VAT, the largest of which is the construction of the Krakow Northern Bypass.

While it is way too soon to say if expanding into the Polish market has been a successful effort, it should already be noted that if the PowerChina Group secures the three contracts, it will actually reach the top 10 of Poland’s contraction companies in terms of the order book value.

Interestingly, the company has set itself the objective of achieving the position of a leading participant of the infrastructure construction market, not only in Poland but also in Europe as a whole.

The ongoing investment upturn, which began several months ago, coupled with excellent performance towards the end of 2017 lifted Polish construction output to new heights.  Output generated by Polish construction industry is expected to further climb in 2018. However, its value as a percentage of GDP is still fairly moderate.