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The Parliament finished working on the law on state support to saving for housing purposes at the end of May. The law will govern the implementation of the First Home scheme.. The law is expected to take effect on 1 July, while the call for applications will open on 3 July.

Key objectives

The scheme consists of two sections: a system of state-funded subsidies to home loans (a safe 2% loan) and a state system supporting saving for housing purposes (a home savings account). The two instruments will be available to people up to 45 years of age who are ready to buy their first apartment or single-family house (new or pre-owned) or plan a purchase in the future.

Safe 2% loan

As far as a safe 2% loan is concerned, the subsidy will be equal to the difference between the fixed interest rate based on the average interest rate on fixed-interest rate loans with the crediting banks, less a margin, and the 2% interest rate of the loan.

The maximum loan amount that scheme participants can apply for is PLN 500,000, while households run by married couples or households with at least one child can seek a loan of up to PLN 600,000. The down payment may not exceed PLN 200,000. Scheme participants may use loan subsidies for 10 years. During the first ten years of the scheme, borrowers will be making decreasing instalment payments, which will then switch to fixed instalment payments, unless the borrower decides otherwise. A safe 2% loan will be available until 2027 (with the option of extension).

Home savings account

The home savings account is a product designed for people who intend to buy a home in the coming years or want to secure funds for their child to do that. The account can be set up for individuals aged from 13 to 45 years of age. The procedure can be performed by a person who does not have, and has not had, a flat, a single-family house, or a cooperative property right to a housing unit or single-family house. Scheme participants can also include people who live in a small flat with at least two children of their own or adopted children. The saving term will be three to ten years. Monthly payments will range from PLN 500 (PLN 6,000 per year) to PLN 2,000 (PLN 24,000 per year). Scheme participants who save for three to ten years and make at least 11 payments a year in the amounts specified above will receive a state-funded bonus on the savings made. The bonus amount reflects the annual inflation rate or a change in the amount of the per-square-metre price of a housing unit.

Doubts and hopes

Despite a positive movement in the housing market caused by the speculation about the launch of the scheme, opinions as to its actual effect on the market are divided. Doubts concerns the expected total number of 2% loans which the participating banks can offer. An impact assessment of the bill on state support to saving for housing purposes finds that commercial banks can advance 155,000 subsidised loans with a combined value of PLN 52.8bn by 2027. The aggregate amount of subsidies can reach PLN 11.3bn. The government estimates that the value of subsidised loans offered through the Safe 2% Loan instrument will be PLN 3.2bn in 2023, PLN 13.2bn in 2024, PLN 10.2bn in 2025, PLN 12.2bn in 2026, and PLN 14bn in 2027. The amount of subsidies funded by the Government Housing Fund will be PLN 941m in 2024, PLN 1,107m in 2025, PLN 1,432m in 2026, PLN 1,725m in 2027, PLN 1,581m in 2028, PLN 1,301m in 2029, PLN 1,152m in 2030, PLN 1,054m in 2031, PLN 1,010m in 2032.

There will be 50,000 safe 2% loans advanced in 2023 and 2024. Since the scheme is to be launched in mid-2023, 10,000 loans will be advanced in 2023 and 40,000 in 2024. However, the ministry stated that there would not be a cap on the number of loans that can be advanced in 2023, and all people with the right credit score will receive a subsidised loan. It will be only in January 2024 when a subsidy registration system is launched and banks enter information on loans advanced and the total cost of subsidised loans over 10 years that it will become known what portion of funds allocated to the scheme’s implementation in subsequent years has been used due to the launch of the safe 2% loan instrument in 2023. As of 2024, the system will not accept applications for 2% loans when 90% of the maximum limit of budget spending on subsidies in a given year has been used and when at least 75% of the next year limit has been used.

Some analysts claim that the predicted number of 155,000 subsidised loans is not feasible at this point unless the government provides additional funding for the scheme. One of the key problems indicated by experts, for instance rynekpierwotny.pl, is a high subsidy amount per mortgage. With record-high interest rates of the National Bank of Poland still prevailing, the cost bringing the effective loan interest rate, through subsidies, to around 3% is very considerable. Although the situation will be helped by lower interest rates, it can be aggravated by such factors as increased construction costs or housing prices.

As for now, banks that decided to introduce state-subsidised loans into their offer are doing their best to launch the offer right on time. The Minister of Development and Technology noted that the top three banks decided to participate in the scheme and are ready to offer subsidised loans and home savings accounts. On the other hand, home developers have been adjusting their offer and price lists to the scheme’s requirements for several months already, impatiently awaiting the summer holiday.

Sales figures, ongoing projects, and market strategies of the leading property developers can be found in the report entitled “Residential property developers in Poland 2023-2028“.

More information about the current state of the housing market can be found in the report "Construction market in Poland 2023-2030".