Analysis of construction potential in the 20 largest cities of Poland
14 aug 2019
The latest report from Spectis, "Construction market in Poland 2019-2025 – analysis of the 20 largest cities", shows significant differences among the individual cities in terms of the present stage of the business cycle and the potential through to 2025. These observations refer to both building construction and municipal infrastructure construction segments.
The trend is clearly evidenced by the figures for housing starts. While the first signs of an investment slowdown in the country’s ten largest cities came to light already in 2018, most of those ranked in the second ten continued to witness substantial growth in this respect.
The housing recovery, which has continued for the past few years, has already exceeded the record levels previously seen in 2007 and 2008 on a country-wide scale. However, only half of the 20 urban agglomerations covered in the report saw the upturn markedly exceed levels reported a decade ago.
Moreover, a review of multi-annual financial projections for the individual cities reveals some serious risks to the continuation of the investment upturn in most of the cases. What could help sustain construction activity in selected cities is the implementation of large-scale strategic investment projects, which are frequently co-financed by the state budget. The report presents several dozen projects in each of the 20 cities covered, that will have a material bearing on the situation in the local markets through to 2025.
The pace of growth in the individual cities will also be strongly driven by demographic trends. Czestochowa, Lodz, Katowice and Kielce are bound to experience the most severe population losses by 2025 within the group of 20 cities covered in the report. The most upbeat demographic projections are valid for Rzeszow, Warsaw and Krakow.
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