In the construction materials market, we are seeing prices bottom out. The strength and speed of the subsequent rebound will depend not only on cost factors but also on the robustness and duration of the recovery in the construction sector. At the same time, we caution contractors against overly aggressive tendering. The relatively low levels of material prices will not last long.
Average growth of materials and labour still in positive territory
According to the quarterly report Price trends in the Polish construction industry, in Q1 2026, price growth in the construction industry slowed down slightly, to nearly 2% y-o-y. The change in real construction output prices is currently more influenced by labour costs, whose average increase amounted to nearly 4% y-o-y. At the same time, the average growth of material prices was -0.4% y-o-y. This means that the figures for the first quarter did not yet take into account the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East.
Stabilisation of average construction material prices
In Q1 2026, the average price change of construction materials in Poland stood at exactly 0.0% y-o-y.
Broken down into the three main segments of the construction market, the changes were distributed as follows:
- Residential construction: +0.1%
- Non-residential construction: -0.4%
- Civil engineering: -1.1%.
Average change in the prices of building materials in Poland (%, y-o-y)
Material prices in residential and non-residential construction
The average change in material prices in building construction was only -0.1% y-o-y. This is a stark contrast to the double-digit increases seen in 2022-2023. It is fair to say that we are observing a price floor being reached in the construction market, from which prices will dynamically bounce back sooner or later.
Which materials recorded price increases?
Slight price increases were noted in groups such as: sandwich panels, ceramic tiles, plaster gypsum, masonry mortars, stone wool panels, and ceramic roof tiles.
Where were price decreases recorded?
In material groups such as: plasterboard, glass wool panels, concrete wall materials, EPS panels, cement roof tiles, ceramic wall materials, silicate wall materials, plaster compounds, bituminous roofing felt, and steel sheets.
Material prices in civil engineering
In Q1 2026, material prices in civil engineering fell by 1.1% y-o-y. This result is mainly driven by a price correction in the steel, asphalt, and plastics markets. However, this correction will most likely come to an end over the course of 2026. Alongside the economic improvement in the Polish construction industry, market factors will begin to play an increasingly important role, and prices may gradually depart from the real cost base.
Which materials recorded price increases?
An increase was recorded in material groups such as: concrete paving stones, gravel for concrete, platform walls, crushed aggregates (increases of 1-2% y-o-y), as well as mineral-asphalt mixtures, concrete kerbs, plain concrete, and concrete pipes (modest increases below 1% y-o-y).
Where were price decreases recorded?
In material groups such as: rsoil-cement mixtures, concrete road slabs, concrete paving slabs, PVC drainage pipes, welded steel pipes, reinforcing bars, steel structures, and road asphalt.
Wage pressure in the construction industry temporarily easing?
Alongside material prices, a significant component of construction service costs is the cost of labour. The minimum wage plays a key role here, which from Q1 2026 increased by PLN 140, translating to a rise of just 3% y-o-y. This is the lowest minimum wage increase in Poland in 16 years.
Stabilisation of energy carrier and crude oil prices has come to an end
Electricity and gas prices on the Polish Power Exchange (TGE) have remained stable for several quarters. A freezing winter did temporarily boost demand and prices for gas and electricity; however, futures contracts for subsequent periods indicate that this stabilisation will be maintained.
As expected, the first quarter of 2026 saw a return to an upward trend in crude oil prices (crude oil usually dictates the prices of diesel, fuels, asphalt, EPS boards, as well as bitumen- and plastic-based materials). After peaking in Q2 2022 (above $110 per barrel) and hitting a low in Q4 2025 ($64), in Q1 2026 the price of Brent crude oil rose to an average of $80 (although in March alone it was already $103). This represents a 6% year-on-year increase, compared with a 15% year-on-year decline in the previous quarter. Financial institutions’ forecasts predict that oil prices will stabilise in 2026 at around $100 per barrel.
Despite earlier forecasts assuming oil prices would stabilise at $65 per barrel, escalating tensions in the Middle East and a sharp rise in commodity prices are calling into question market equilibrium in 2026. The key factor of uncertainty remains the time horizon of the conflict, which may keep prices at an elevated level for a long time.
Construction materials may soon become more expensive
In our opinion, construction companies should already be factoring future material price increases into their tender calculations. For those that fail to do so, margins of 1-2% are a realistic scenario, particularly for contracts with a completion period longer than 2 years. Otherwise, they will be left relying solely on contract indexation.
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