Over the past eight years, the value of the construction market in Poland has doubled, and this upward trend is set to continue. Following a weaker performance in 2024-2025, forecasts for the coming years project a moderate pace of recovery in market value. As a result, it will exceed PLN 500bn before 2030. However, this impressive growth in market value is not matched by an increase in market volume, which has stagnated for over a decade.
Current condition and value of the construction market in Poland
According to the Spectis report titled "Construction market in Poland 2026-2033", between 2017 and 2025, the value of the construction market doubled, growing from nearly PLN 200bn to over PLN 400bn. In nominal terms, the market value may seem impressive; however, when looking at the volume of executed work and consumed construction materials, the increase recorded in recent years is less spectacular. The growth observed during this period was primarily nominal and resulted from rising prices of construction materials and labour.
In real terms (i.e. after accounting for the price growth of construction and assembly production), measured by the consumption of basic construction materials (e.g. cement, ready-mixed concrete, and steel), the construction market remains in a phase of long-term stabilisation. This is also indicated by the ratio of the construction market value to Poland's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). After reaching a record share of over 12% in 2011 (a period of intensive preparation for hosting Euro 2012), the value of the construction market relative to GDP has fluctuated between 10% and 11% since 2013.
Construction market forecasts for the coming years
According to the latest Spectis forecasts, following a contraction in 2024 and a somewhat disappointing, albeit positive, 2025, the next three years should be a much more favourable period for construction companies. The market's value growth rate is expected to outpace construction inflation. Consequently, even before 2030, the value of the construction market will, for the first time in history, exceed PLN 500bn, while its ratio to GDP will remain above 10%.
Stable structure of the Polish construction market
The primary basis for the segmentation of the construction market in Poland is the Polish Classification of Types of Construction (PKOB), which is a more reliable indicator for the construction sector than the Polish Classification of Activities (PKD). The Polish construction market is relatively evenly distributed across three main segments:
- Residential construction (PKOB 11)
- Non-residential construction (PKOB 12)
- Civil engineering (PKOB 2)
Looking at the entire population of construction companies and non-construction entities (i.e. companies for which construction and assembly production is a secondary activity), non-residential construction remains the dominant market segment. In addition to the erection of new buildings, it generates significant demand for modernisation, repair, and maintenance work in relation to the growing volume of non-residential stock.
Residential construction based on two solid pillars
In the coming years, the Polish residential construction market will be supported by both of its main segments:
- single-family residential buildings (PKOB 111), represented primarily by individual investors (building homes for their own housing needs)
- two-dwelling and multi-dwelling buildings (PKOB 112), represented primarily by residential property developers (who, in addition to constructing multi-dwelling buildings, are increasingly entering the single-family housing estate sector)
Beyond retail apartment sales, developers will gradually shift towards the rental market in the coming years. This will occur either through the sale of entire buildings to PRS funds or through investments in their own institutional rental platforms.
Non-residential construction dominated by production and logistics
In the perspective up to 2033, industrial and warehouse buildings (PKOB 125) will remain the largest segment of non-residential construction, accounting for nearly 40% of non-residential building production.
Other significant segments of non-residential construction over the next decade include:
- hotels and tourist accommodation buildings (PKOB 121),
- office buildings (PKOB 122),
- wholesale and retail trade buildings (PKOB 123),
- transport and communication buildings (PKOB 124),
- as well as various types of public utility buildings (PKOB 126).
In the future, we also expect an increase in the number of commercial mixed-use developments that blend office, retail, hotel, and transport functions. Such facilities are often supplemented with public services. Statistically, mixed-use buildings are classified into the appropriate PKOB group depending on the predominant use of the planned floor space.
Civil engineering driven by transport and energy
The value distribution of the largest planned investments points to the growing importance of civil engineering, though this depends on the actual execution of most announced projects. In the coming years, the largest segments of civil engineering will be:
- highways, streets, and roads (PKOB 211),
- complex structures on industrial sites (PKOB 230),
- pipelines and telecommunication lines, long-distance electricity lines (PKOB 221),
- as well as railways (PKOB 212).
Strategic civil engineering projects as the driving force of the construction sector
Over the coming years, the primary stimuli supporting the development of the construction market will include: solid long-term macroeconomic foundations of the Polish economy, €72bn in EU grants for the implementation of the 2021-2027 cohesion policy, a favourable initial draft of the EU budget for 2028-2034 for Poland, the continued implementation of the National Road Construction Programme and the National Railway Programme, the energy transition of the Polish economy, a structural shortage of housing resources in Poland compared to the EU average, a revival in military construction, and the execution of megaprojects planned for years (e.g. offshore wind farms, the Solidarity Transport Hub, High-Speed Rail, and a nuclear power plant).
Main challenges for the construction industry
Conversely, significant factors that could negatively affect the construction market include: unfavourable demographic forecasts, a construction labour shortage, the excessive deficit procedure launched against Poland, relatively high interest rates, delayed tendering procedures, the uncertain future of many planned energy investments, high prices of raw materials, semi-finished products, materials, and contracting services, a growing deficit of attractive construction plots, as well as an uncertain geopolitical situation leading to reduced investor interest in the Central and Eastern Europe region.
Ambitious investment plans burdened by a range of risks and limitations
In our assessment, the growing role of megaprojects in shaping the outlook for the construction market poses a significant market risk. For smaller entities, an investment revival driven primarily by large-scale projects may be felt only marginally or not at all. Meanwhile, large companies must account for a higher number of threats than in the case of "standard" investments. As the experience of other countries shows, the execution of ambitious construction ventures of strategic importance is almost always accompanied by delays, conceptual and design changes, and cost increases.
On the other hand, even assuming outstanding determination and exemplary punctuality from public investors, the timely execution of all planned megaprojects still appears unrealistic. In such a scenario, the construction industry would simply lack the production capacity, and the prices of construction services would soar to record levels.
In summary, looking at the coming decade, Poland's theoretical investment needs and plans are both significant and urgent. In practice, however, the pace of their execution will be dictated by the competence and financial capabilities of the public sector, as well as the personnel resources and production capacity of major contractors.
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Methodological note
The general forecasting report "Construction market in Poland" focuses on the future of the broadly defined construction market, while simultaneously presenting historical time series. In the report, we aggregate data on the construction sector from dozens of different sources. The core elements of the report are proprietary 7-year forecasts for the three main market segments - residential construction, non-residential construction, and civil engineering - as well as over a dozen sub-segments. These include single-family, multi-dwelling, hotel, office, retail, warehouse, and public buildings, alongside roads, railways, energy, hydro-engineering, as well as bridges and tunnels. The report is supplemented by listings of the largest planned investments for the aforementioned segments. In total, the report presents the 840 most significant investment projects that will have a crucial impact on the future of Polish construction.
